In deciding to invest in stocks traded in the capital market, investors need to predict which stocks provide the prospect of return and the risks to be faced. This paper aims to predict the return and risk of stock asymmetry using a time series model approach. Predicting stock returns and risk is based on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average-Glosten Jagannatan Runkle-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARIMA-GJR-GARCH) model. In contrast, the largest risk potential measurement is performed using the Value-at-Risk (VaR) model. The data analyzed are the best ten stocks according to the criteria that apply on the IDX, the period between 17 December 2018 to 14 December 2021, which includes the names of stock BBCA, BBNI, BBRI, BMRI, ASII, ICBP, PGAS, PTBA, TLKM, and UNVR. The analysis results show that of the best ten stocks, based on the ratio between the predicted values of the average return and Value-at-Risk, those with relatively better performance are PTBA, TLKM, UNVR and BBCA stocks. Based on the results of this analysis, it can be used as a reference in making investment decisions for investors, specifically investing in the ten stocks analyzed.

COVID-19 is a contagious disease caused by the coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that attacks the respiratory tract. On August 14th, 2021, 653,741 persons had been proven positive for COVID-19. The number of patients tends to increase as the number of COVID-19 cases grows. The more infected people, the more cases of COVID-19 there will be. The Bed Occupancy Ratio (BOR) in West Java reached an all-time high of 91.6 percent in June 2021, far exceeding the WHO recommendation of 60 percent, before gradually declining to 30.69 percent in August. Because of the new cases mentioned, the rate of spread of COVID-19 in West Java, the forecast of new cases is very strategic. The number of new cases in this study was predicted using a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP). The data used in this study were sourced from the COVID-19 Task Force. The data is the number of positive and new cases from 34 provinces in Indonesia from March 2nd, 2020, to August 14th, 2021. The results of the evaluation using test data on the number of active cases in the last 19 weeks, namely April 10th - August 14th, 2021, The MLP is accurate in forecasting the number of new cases 18 times for both forecast periods with APE < 15%, with the value MAPE, RMSE and MAE obtained were 5.52%, 1157,61, and 706.811. The results of this study can be helpful for the government as a reference in conditioning hospital bed capacity to deal with active COVID-19 cases in West Java in the next two weeks so that the hospital rejects no COVID-19 patients because the hospital is full.

Demand elasticity is the sensitivity of changes in the number of goods demanded by consumers due to changes in the price of goods. This paper compares the price elasticity of demand with and without memory effect using fractional-order derivatives. This study is designed using the development theory of fractional derivatives for the economic field in determining the price elasticity of demand. The result of numerical simulation using the value of α and p indicated that the price elasticity of demand with memory effect is more accurate than without the memory effect. Furthermore, this study concluded that the price elasticity of demand does not only depend on the latest price (current price) but changes in all prices from a specific time interval. The findings of this study suggest future studies can examine the phenomenon of market equilibrium using fractional-order derivatives.

This study examines the link between employee competency, creativity, and performance in generating product competitiveness in the weaving industry. It also analyzed the moderating role of time sufficiency in reinforcing employee performance and product competitiveness. This study was designed quantitatively by administering a questionnaire to 662 employees from 331 weaving SMEs in Indonesia using structural equation modelling. The analysis revealed that employee competency positively affects creativity, performance, and product competitiveness. Additionally, time sufficiency was confirmed as moderator in strengthening the linkage between employee creativity, performance, and product competitiveness.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between the performance of Reverse Logistics and Green Supply Chain Management, to analyze the relationship between Green Procurement Aspects and the performance of Green Supply Chain Management. This research method is quantitative, the analysis of research data uses the partial least square structural equation model (SEM-PLS) with a statistical data processing tool, namely SmartPLS 4.0 software. Research data was obtained by distributing online questionnaires through social media designed using a Likert scale of 7. Respondents in this study were 670 SMEs owners in Java Island, Indonesia. The stages of data analysis are validity test, reliability test and significance test or hypothesis test. The results of this study indicate that Reverse Logistics has a positive and significant effect on the performance of Green Supply Chain Management, Green Procurement Aspects has a positive and significant effect on the performance of Green Supply Chain Management. The novelty of this study is the relationship model between Reverse Logistics variables, the performance of Green Supply Chain Management and Green Procurement in SMEs which was not found in previous studies. Culinary SMEs are expected to be able to participate in supporting environmentally sound development. This is because the concept of Green Supply Chain Management (GSCM) is a concept that aims to minimize the negative impact of an organization and its supply chain on the environment related to climate change, pollution and resources that are not too large. In order to support GSCM, it is necessary to evaluate the extent to which this concept is carried out by Culinary SMEs. By conducting this evaluation, it is hoped that the constraints and obstacles faced by SMEs in carrying out GSCM can be identified. For this reason, it is necessary to have support from related parties, in this case the government, to conduct socialization and counseling and assistance in implementing GSCM.

This research aims to analyze and develop a theoretical framework, built with a performance model influenced by the work environment and entrepreneurial orientation, and mediated by organizational commitment. This research used a quantitative approach as the methodology. The survey was distributed using a questionnaire instrument. The population in this study were 6,708 MSME owners in Brebes Regency, Central Java, Indonesia, and the sample in this study were 377 MSME owners, which was determined using the Slovin formula. The sampling technique in this research used a non-random sampling with proportional sampling. Simultaneously, the statistical method used to test the hypotheses in this study is a multivariate Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). Based on the results of statistical tests, it can be known partially that 1) Work environment has a significant effect on the performance of MSMEs, 2) Entrepreneurial orientation has a significant effect on the performance of MSMEs, 3) Organizational commitment has a significant effect on the performance of MSMEs. 4) Work environment has a significant effect on organizational commitment, 5) Entrepreneurial orientation has a significant effect on organizational commitment, 6) Work environment has a significant effect on the performance of MSMEs through organizational commitment, and 7) Entrepreneurial orientation has a significant effect on the performance of MSMEs through organizational commitment. The novelty in this study is that the empirically constructed model of organizational commitment has proven to be significant as a mediation of the work environment and entrepreneurial orientation towards performance. with the strongest influence of work environment and entrepreneurial orientation on organizational commitment.

The objectives of this study are: (1) To determine whether the Leader-Member Exchange (LMX) and organizational culture can improve employee performance, (2) To conduct further research on employee performance by elaborating and analyzing variables that can affect work engagement, among others: members of the leadership and organizational culture. This research was conducted at a Telecommunication Company in Makassar, South Sulawesi with a sample size of 93 people. The analysis model used to determine the influence between variables was a structural model with the Partial Least Square (PLS) approach. In this study it was found that 1. LMX had no significant effect on job involvement. 2. LMX had no significant effect on worker performance. 3. Organizational culture had a significant effect on work engagement. 4. Organizational culture had a significant effect on employee performance, 5. Work management had no significant effect on employee performance. Leaders need to build high-level LMX relationships, equip workers with skills, increase employee professionalism and provide opportunities for employees, help solve the difficulties they face related to assigned tasks and make employees as friends so that they can increase their engagement and performance.

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between eco-efficiency and sustainability performance, the relationship between eco-supply chain management and sustainability performance and analyze the mediating role of Eco-Supply Chain Management on the relationship between eco-efficiency and sustainability performance. The study method is a quantitative survey which is executed through the partial least square structural equation model (SEM-PLS) with a statistical data processing tool, namely SmartPLS 4.0 software. Research data was obtained by distributing online questionnaires through social media designed using a Likert scale of 7. Respondents in this study were 590 SMEs owners in Java Island, Indonesia. The results of the study indicate that eco-efficiency had a positive and significant effect on sustainability performance, green supply chain management (GSCM) had a positive and significant effect on sustainability performance. GSCM also plays a full mediating role in the relationship between eco-efficiency and sustainability performance. This research is expected to be a source of reference for further research in discussing issues related to the implementation of eco-efficiency and GSCM.

This study aims to: 1) describe market orientation, entrepreneurship orientation, innovation, mixed marketing and marketing performance, 2) analyze the effect of market orientation and entrepreneurship orientation on innovation, the effect of market orientation and entrepreneurship orientation on the mixed marketing, the influence of market orientation and entrepreneurship orientation on marketing performance. The study is a causality descriptive study to conduct clarity of the correlation and the influence of cause and effect among variables. The analysis technique is statistics descriptive and SEM. The findings of this study are as follows: a) Market orientation effects the innovation of Food and Beverage SMEs in Religious Tourism in Kudus, b) Entrepreneurship orientation effects the innovation of Food and Beverage SMEs of Religious Tourism in Kudus, c) Market orientation effects the mixed marketing of Food and Beverage SMEs of Religious Tourism, d) Entrepreneurship orientation affects the mixed marketing of Food and Beverage SMEs of Religious Tourism, e) Market orientation and Entrepreneurship orientation effect the marketing performance of Food and Beverage SMEs of Religious Tourism, f) Entrepreneurship orientation effects marketing performance of Food and Beverage SMEs of Religious Tourism, g) Innovation effects marketing performance of Food and Beverage SMEs of Religious Tourism, h) Mixed marketing effects marketing performance of Food and Beverage SMEs of Religious Tourism, i) Market orientation influences marketing performance of Food and Beverage SMEs of Religious Tourism by innovation, j) Entrepreneurship orientation influences marketing performance of Food and Beverage SMEs of Religious Tourism along with innovation.

This study aims to examine the causal relationship between the variables of business competitiveness development, learning orientation, entrepreneurial commitment, and business performance of the silk industry in Wajo Regency, South Sulawesi Province. The population in this study were all small scale silk industry entrepreneurs, totaling 5,137 businesses spread over 14 districts in Wajo Regency. The size of the research sample based on the Krejcie and Morgan tables is 357. The data analysis technique uses a structural equation model. The results of the analysis show that the development of business competitiveness and learning orientation partially has a significant effect on entrepreneurial commitment. The development of business competitiveness does not have a significant effect on business performance but learning orientation has a significant effect on business performance. Furthermore, the development of business competitiveness and learning orientation has an indirect effect on business performance through entrepreneurial commitment. The research suggestion is that business development that is oriented towards business performance is not sufficient only based on strengthening knowledge and skills but the main thing is related to the development of the personality of the business actor.