Measuring liquidity risk plays an important role on any business unit especially financial organizations. Social security systems in most countries around the world are responsible to provide necessary requirements in many countries such as health care, pension plans, etc. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce any risk associated with these systems as much as possible. In this paper, we study liquidity risk in Iranian social security using VaR technique. The proposed model of this paper uses historical information for a fiscal year of 2008-2011. We first divide the information of each year into two groups of first and second half and using VaR technique analyzed whether there was any trend change in these two groups. The results of our survey indicate that the mean of VaR in the second half of the year is greater than the first half of the year. Therefore, we can confirm that VaR maintains an increasing trend over the time horizon. We also study the trend in liquidity using regression analysis for each year, separately and the results of our survey confirm that there was an increasing trend in liquidity over time.

Determining how a new production cell will function is problematic and can lead to disastrous results if done incorrectly. Discrete-event simulation can provide information on how a line will function before, during, and after the line is in operation. A simulation model can also provide a visual animation of the line to see how product will flow through the line. This paper discusses the development and analysis of a simulation model of a new manufacturing line. The manufacturing cell is a new motor assembly cell. An analysis of the capability of the line for varying demand levels was conducted for the two main motor types produced on the line. An ARENA® simulation model was developed, verified, and validated to determine the daily production and potential problem areas for the various demand levels. The results show that at all but one demand level, the line is capable of producing to within one unit of customer demand if the required number of workers is present. At the highest demand level, the simulation results suggest that the line is not capable of meeting demand. Additional analysis indicates that multiple workstations could prove problematic with minor fluctuations in demand. Problematic workstations were identified for each assembly area and for the line as a whole.

In today’s global scenario of intense competition and environmental uncertainty flexibility in supply chain has an important role to play for the existence of any supply chain business. A need to be responsive to the constantly changing market scenario and cater to the customer needs, a certain degree of flexibility is required, which requires the coordination of many plants to produce and deliver goods to customers located in different places, and suppliers, which provide each plant with the required components. This paper intends to measure the degree of flexibility required for a two stage supply chain and assessing both the supplier flexibility and the assembler flexibility. In this paper, nine configurations of the SC are considered resulting from the combination of the three degrees of supplier and manufacturer flexibility, i.e. no flexibility, limited flexibility and total flexibility, respectively. Simulation model representing the different flexibility configurations are evaluated and the performance of each configuration analyzed to determine the flexibility configuration suitable to a supply chain. In particular the performance analysis of lead time, work-in-process, service level and cost are measured to determine the suitable flexibility.

In this paper, an extended forming limit stress diagram (EFLSD) was applied to predict neck initiation failure in tube hydroforming of metal bellows. The proposed EFLSD was used in conjunction with ABAQUS/ EXPLICIT finite element simulations to predict the onset of necking in tube hydroforming of metal bellows. The amount of calibration pressure and axial feeding required to produce an acceptable part in finite element method (FEM) were compared with the published experimental data and a satisfactory agreement between the FEM and published test results was achieved. Therefore, the present approach can be used as a reliable criterion for designing metal bellows hydroforming processes and reducing the number of costly trials.